Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 4.565459 5.020714 5.531918 6.155058 6.903450 7.785930 8.925066
2024-12-29 3.999525 4.592227 5.310043 6.266138 7.544592 9.259016 11.861492
2025-01-05 3.558480 4.191225 4.993470 6.124403 7.751781 10.152317 14.318160
2025-01-12 3.237324 3.882379 4.727692 5.970976 7.865867 10.892074 16.826869
2025-01-19 2.956723 3.590174 4.439612 5.727481 7.775806 11.255967 18.823605
2025-01-26 2.839322 3.500887 4.413902 5.853076 8.275195 12.762145 24.190844
2025-02-02 2.779283 3.481346 4.479740 6.120621 9.062676 15.106536 34.204291
2025-02-09 2.698486 3.423344 4.479664 6.277605 9.684542 17.394827 48.259471
2025-02-16 2.571063 3.287301 4.347039 6.191309 9.814908 18.584601 61.062560
2025-02-23 2.464606 3.174401 4.239790 6.133844 9.990252 19.992044 80.836358
2025-03-02 2.366191 3.066998 4.132085 6.061484 10.118087 21.349480 109.547287
2025-03-09 2.282511 2.976686 4.044549 6.015074 10.294356 22.987641 161.835439
2025-03-16 2.212076 2.904280 3.983460 6.016562 10.598780 25.372697 304.195025
2025-03-23 2.166748 2.867913 3.978977 6.126387 11.200146 29.524240 1485.881918
2025-03-30 2.082497 2.766148 3.857203 5.990034 11.138662 30.778504 17631.438543
2025-04-06 2.002646 2.667750 3.735404 5.842107 11.019598 31.726359 NaN
2025-04-13 1.913754 2.551590 3.577310 5.607129 10.623599 30.990945 NaN
2025-04-20 1.888435 2.535474 3.590887 5.728360 11.256625 36.791811 NaN
2025-04-27 1.884832 2.553655 3.665058 5.986410 12.379970 48.451674 NaN
2025-05-04 1.864928 2.544077 3.688759 6.137696 13.235005 61.434760 NaN
2025-05-11 1.814169 2.481413 3.612252 6.054543 13.279535 66.553279 NaN
2025-05-18 1.770015 2.428092 3.550194 5.999156 13.413509 73.757664 NaN
2025-05-25 1.726451 2.374206 3.484443 5.929394 13.482272 80.874785 NaN